The financial stability outlook for the Netherlands in 2026 remains concerning, as rising geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty in global economic policy continue to heighten the risk of economic and financial shocks. These developments are highlighted in the latest Financial Stability Report released by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).
DNB President Olaf Sleijpen warns that global uncertainty has reached levels “not seen in decades,” spanning geopolitical, economic and digital domains. He emphasises the need for strengthened financial and digital resilience across the financial sector, government and society, developed in close cooperation with European partners.
Persistent Economic Uncertainty
Economic uncertainty remains a defining feature of the global landscape. Fragmentation in international trade, renewed tariff disputes and escalating trade restrictions are dampening confidence among both households and businesses. At the same time, the proliferation of digital and hybrid threats is posing new risks, with financial institutions increasingly targeted.
Equity markets (particularly in the United States) have climbed to historically high valuations. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainty, leaves markets more vulnerable to abrupt corrections. Rising public debt refinancing costs across major economies add another layer of concern, with the sustainability of French sovereign debt drawing heightened scrutiny.
Institutional pressures also loom large. Signs of strain around the independence of the US Federal Reserve present potential spillover risks for the Dutch financial system, particularly through volatility in the US government bond market.
A Strong Domestic Financial Sector
Despite global headwinds, the Dutch financial system remains robust. Banks continue to operate with strong capital buffers and ample liquidity, and insurers and pension funds show healthy balance sheets.
Yet vulnerabilities persist below the surface. The growing interconnectedness between banks and non-bank financial intermediaries—exacerbated by the rapid expansion of private credit—is creating new channels through which risks can spread. In many cases, the underlying exposures of private credit investments are opaque, complicating risk assessment. DNB stresses the need for stronger risk management across the financial sector, with particular attention to leveraged financing and portfolio interdependencies.
Stablecoins: Rising Influence, Emerging Risks
The global stablecoin market has surpassed $300 billion, most of it concentrated in the United States. These dollar-pegged crypto assets are primarily used to facilitate broader crypto-asset trading and are backed by a mix of government bonds, bank deposits and other financial instruments.
While stablecoins offer potential benefits (particularly in enabling more efficient cross-border payments) they also introduce new financial stability risks. Large-scale redemptions could force issuers to sell assets rapidly, potentially triggering market volatility. DNB underscores the importance of internationally coordinated regulatory frameworks to contain these risks while enabling innovation.
The Need to Sustain Competitiveness
In a world marked by geopolitical fragmentation, the Netherlands continues to benefit from a strong European network and a competitive economic base. Dutch firms maintain an edge in price, quality and innovation, supported by high-quality institutions, strong education and an open economic structure.
However, this competitive position is not guaranteed. Low productivity growth, rising export prices and uncertainty surrounding domestic economic policy are eroding the foundations of future growth. DNB calls for structural reforms and targeted investments in capital, knowledge and skills to strengthen long-term competitiveness.
The government can play a role by streamlining regulatory procedures and offering well-targeted financial support to innovative firms, but fiscal prudence remains critical.
Strengthening Europe: Three Priority Areas
DNB identifies deeper European cooperation as essential for safeguarding Dutch competitiveness and enhancing financial stability. The central priorities include:
- Completing the single market
Harmonising national rules and reducing administrative fragmentation would help firms expand across borders more efficiently and at lower cost. - Deepening European capital markets
A more integrated system would make it easier and cheaper for businesses to raise risk-bearing capital. Stronger retail participation in investment and retirement savings products across the EU would also expand the supply of venture capital. - Exploring simplified banking regulations
Modernising and streamlining the regulatory landscape could support a more dynamic banking sector (provided these reforms do not compromise financial resilience).
Conclusion
As the Netherlands approaches 2026, the financial stability outlook is shaped by heightened global uncertainty and increasingly complex risks. Yet the country’s strong financial institutions, competitive economy and strategic position within Europe provide a solid foundation. Maintaining resilience, strengthening risk management and deepening European cooperation will be crucial to navigating the challenges ahead.
References
De Nederlandsche Bank . (2025, November 17). Financial stability outlook remains concerning. Retrieved from De Nederlandsche Bank https://www.dnb.nl/en/general-news/press-release-2025/financial-stability-outlook-remains-concerning/
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